10 Early Predictions for the 2024 European Elections
By Richard Steel, Senior Advisor, DGA EU
We are still around 1 year away from the elections. There are no real EU opinion polls, just a collection of national ones, which usually differ between national and European elections. On that basis, taking the average from 3 separate sources (Politico, Europe Elects and EU Matrix) delivers the results below.
While the trends in all 3 sources tend to be in the same direction, there are some noticeable differences ie Politico has Renew losing 13 seats while EU Matrix has a 3 seat gain; Politico again foresees a bigger Green drop of 29 compared to Europe Elects on -15.
- High turnover of MEPs continues – as in 2019 likely to be well over 50%
- EPP set to remain largest group despite losses
- EPP and Socialists domination continues to fall
- Pro-EU majority reduced and harder to control
- Extremes of Left and Right will be main winners in terms of numbers – but still unlikely to translate into influence
- Greens the big losers
- Political parties still to set timetable for choosing Spitzenkandidat and adopting manifestos
- Von der Leyen not assured of 2nd term
- Polish and Spanish elections could shift the balance in European Council
- Unfinished business – many proposals risk lapsing