10 Early Predictions for the 2024 European Elections

By Richard Steel, Senior Advisor, DGA EU

We are still around 1 year away from the elections. There are no real EU opinion polls, just a collection of national ones, which usually differ between national and European elections. On that basis, taking the average from 3 separate sources (Politico, Europe Elects and EU Matrix) delivers the results below.

While the trends in all 3 sources tend to be in the same direction, there are some noticeable differences ie Politico has Renew losing 13 seats while EU Matrix has a 3 seat gain; Politico again foresees a bigger Green drop of 29 compared to Europe Elects on -15.

  1. High turnover of MEPs continues – as in 2019 likely to be well over 50%
  2. EPP set to remain largest group despite losses
  3. EPP and Socialists domination continues to fall
  4. Pro-EU majority reduced and harder to control
  5. Extremes of Left and Right will be main winners in terms of numbers – but still unlikely to translate into influence
  6. Greens the big losers
  7. Political parties still to set timetable for choosing Spitzenkandidat and adopting manifestos
  8. Von der Leyen not assured of 2nd term
  9. Polish and Spanish elections could shift the balance in European Council
  10. Unfinished business – many proposals risk lapsing

DGA’s Public Affairs team looks at early indicators of what may be coming

To read the full report click here